It’s important to remember one central truth about Mitt
Romney, and another truth about the political environment when considering who
the man will choose to be his number two come August. Romney is an incredibly
plain, boring, and personally conservative individual who has constantly
surrounded himself with people of the same ilk; number two is that, after the
Sarah Palin readiness to be President fiasco, Romney must make his decision
based less on politics and more on competence.
Basically,
team Romney’s vice presidential choice will likely be someone quite similar to
Willard Mitt himself. This person will be square, but highly competent, and for
political reasons, probably quite a bit more consistently conservative.
With these
baseline criteria in mind, it’s easy to offhandedly eliminate a couple of
popular choices—Florida Senator Marco Rubio and New Jersey Governor Chris
Christie. Both would be great choices if Romney himself weren’t so boring, but
he is, they’re not, and the Vice President can’t completely overshadow the man
at the top of the ticket.
Conventional
wisdom among the political elites currently is trending toward Ohio (and
Southwest Ohio’s) very own, Senator Rob Portman; however, it would behoove
anyone who sees Portman as the number one option to remember the degree to
which Portman is a Washington Insider (current Senator, former Congressman,
former US Trade Representative, and former OMB director).
Romney’s
rhetoric toward the so-called Washington Insider crowd has been quite harsh,
and to run quickly into the arms of a DC insider after railing against them
since 2007 would be awkward and politically tone deaf to say the least. No
matter how popular and competent he is, Portman’s selection seems unlikely for
this reason.
It’s unlikely that Romney choose anyone currently serving
in Congress because of the anti-Washington sentiment across the country (my
apologies to Rep Paul Ryan and Senator John Thune). This is in conflict with
the idea that Romney needs to choose for Presidential readiness first and
foremost, but political implications will always play the largest role in this
process. Plus an experienced governor is probably more ready to be President
than someone who has simply represented a Congressional district, or even
served as a Senator.
The missing element in the 2012 Presidential election is
populism. Team Obama can pretend like Vice President Biden relates to the common
man, but he’s no populist. Mitt Romney and President Obama? They are basically
both elitists. Both have degrees from Harvard (although Romney actually has
more), and both worked in an elite field before entering politics (management
consulting for Romney and teaching law school for Obama). With these two at the
top of the ticket, the populist crowd is still looking for someone to rally
behind, and a populist would almost certainly change the game in the 2012
election for the Republicans.
That’s
why I think Mike Huckabee, who is basically populist in chief, is Romney’s best
choice for VP. He is a likeable guy, and a little goofy, without coming off as
a joke. Most importantly, he could not be more popular with the base of the
party. The big problem here is that these two completely hate each other (bad blood
from stemming from some negativity in the ’08 campaign), so it is a highly
unlikely scenario, but there couldn’t be a better option for Romney if he truly
wants to win.
More
likely options to fill this role, though less effectively than Huckabee, but
effectively nonetheless, are politicians like Governor Jeb Bush of Florida, who
isn’t particularly well known nationally, but would quickly shed the Bush
stigma after people heard him talk for five minutes, or Louisiana Governor
Bobby Jindal, another conservative darling from the South.
The
unfortunate truth of the veepstakes is that every prediction is probably
actually wrong. In 1996 Jack Kemp came out of nowhere, same thing with Dick
Cheney in 2000, and Sarah Palin could not have been a bigger shock in 2008. But
there are always traits that the candidate looks for to shore up their
weaknesses. For Romney, this will be difficult because of his natural draw
toward those similar to him, but if he wants to win, it will be important to
embrace a populist Southern Governor, not a safe Washington Insider, or he’s
almost certainly going to lose in November.
