In Evan Thomas and Mike Allen's new e-book, The Right Fights Back (which is excellent and worth the read by the way), Stu Stevens, Romney's lead strategist, makes it crystal clear that, had the economy recovered by now, Governor Romney would have sat this election out. The Romney camp admits their only path to the Presidency is if the economy remains in shambles because of their businessman who understands the economy message, not to mention the fact that their candidate screams milquetoast moderate elite worse than a certain Thomas E. Dewey.
In a recent poll by the Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners (via Politico) of battleground states, respondents were asked to choose which of 11 issues was the most important to them. Of the 11, 5 (taxes, jobs, health care costs, government spending and the deficit, and the economy generically) dealt with economic concerns. These 5 issues received 67% of the vote; dwarfing any other issue. So it's clear that driving home a message of "President Obama has been a disaster on the economy. I understand the economy. I spent my life in the private sector" is a slam dunk for any Republican that can pull it off (no matter how intellectually dishonest it may be) because people want to see a better economy and with a high unemployment rate, people don't trust that the President is improving things.
With unemployment stagnant in the 9% range as it had been, Mitt Romney, despite having flip flopped on nearly every important issue, appeared a formidable candidate; however, with unemployment trending down for the past two months and taking a solid dive this month, Mitt's "week from heck" as Mark Halperin called it, just got worse.
If the unemployment number continues trending down, Romney's lone advantage is gone.
You see, conservatives have already rejected him. They've gone from Michelle Bachmann to Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt Gingrich; and let's be honest, these four aren't exactly going to make up Romney's own team of rivals. Politically each and every one of them is a joke and wouldn't be polling past 5% with a viable conservative in the race.
Unfortunately Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, and Paul Ryan all decided to sit this one out, leaving the only true conservatives in the race as crazy people (my apologies to Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman both of whom aren't crazy, they just both have no chance). Any of the four named above would be kicking the crap out of the field and there would be no doubt that they would be the nominee at this point. That's not saying all of them are perfect candidates, they're most certainly not (Bush's last name, Daniels' divorce, Christie's lack of experience, and Ryan's politically courageous, but easy to attack budget all come to mind), but they are all leaps and bounds above anyone currently in the field.
Newt Gingrich is the current front-runner, enough said. However, unlike some, I give Newt a chance to become the nominee and I slowly am beginning to see him as a semi-viable (which is really as good as Republicans can do at this point) general election candidate.
Specifically, if the unemployment numbers continue to steadily fall, conservatives should, and probably will, cut bait with Romney (who they already hate) for good because they're in need of something more than just a good manager who "understands the economy" to face a recovering and, in turn, formidable Obama. They will need a transformative kind of leader who is willing to be bold and fight for true conservative values in Washington. If the economy is recovering, Newt Gingrich becomes the likely GOP nominee (the obvious caveat is that if the jobs number stagnates or rises again, what I've said is nullified). And like it or not, Gingrich is really quite bold and despite his support for multiple not even moderate, but liberal positions in the past, what he's running on now is pure red meat for far-righters who want to see a drastic change in the federal government.
Realistically, with Gingrich's current positions (a 15% flat tax to name one of the more bold ones) I still just have a hard time seeing how he could possibly beat Obama, especially if we are clearly in a recovery (the only way I think Newt gets the nod) and the Obama campaign machine operates as it did four years ago. He wouldn't be attracting enough independent support and the Republicans would likely be nominating their own Mondale, McGovern, or even another Goldwater all of whom did not receive broad based support. However, Newt would be a base favorite and with the right kind of campaign (either super negative driving down turnout or super "Gary Hart style" ideas based), he could win. While my head says no, my gut has sort of been saying yes on Newt for a while. Another possibility is that with Newt taking the right flank firmly and Obama seemingly firmly on the left flank, both men would not gain much independent support allowing the Americans Elect candidate to step in and shape the race, maybe even win.
If Newt gets the nod, something I've accepted as a real possibility, I won't even pretend to be sure which of the aforementioned results would occur, I really just don't know. The man is the ultimate wildcard, he could move in any ideological direction (seriously he might want to be King). But I do know one thing; this election is going to be a referendum on which direction Americans want to move. The question is, will it be right, left, or forward?
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