RNC Keynoter Chris Christie offers best hope for Republicans

In 2004, a then young State Senator and United States Senate candidate from Illinois named Barack Obama stepped up to the podium at the Democratic National Convention in Boston and delivered a stirring keynote address that catapulted him from a place of relative obscurity to one of national prominence. 

His party was on it’s way to nominating an unpopular, flip-flopping elitist, politician in Massachusetts Senator John Kerry.  Joining Kerry on the ticket was young-gun then Senator John Edwards (who’s life has taken some interesting turns in the past eight years).  Kerry was quickly defined by President Bush’s team and never regained his footing in the race; he lost to the fairly unpopular incumbent.

Four years later, then Senator Obama ran for President; he told us we were the ones we’d been waiting for, that we should be audacious enough to hope, and that there is no red and blue America just a United States of America.

Fast forward to 2012.  The Republican Party will soon nominate an unlikable, elitist, flip-flopping former Massachusetts Governor in Mitt Romney.  And Romney has of course tabbed his party’s ultimate young-gun in Representative Paul Ryan for the Vice Presidential slot. 

With Romney’s high unfavorable ratings and recent decision to fundamentally alter his campaign’s strategy by choosing Ryan, he seems likely to be defeated by the unpopular, but likable President Obama.

Many pundits have written about the parallels between the 2004 Presidential election and this one.  And conservatives ought to hope they’re wrong about all the parallels but one--and it’s a little discussed parallel. You see conservative firebrand and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will deliver the keynote address at this year’s Republican National Convention in Tampa.

And Christie is a man with a compelling story to tell.

Most importantly to Republicans, he has balanced two budgets after inheriting an eleven billion dollar deficit.  He has made the tough choices on big issues like state pension reform, and has done this with the wind blowing firmly in his face—New Jersey’s State legislature is 60% Democratic. He currently holds a 57% approval rating in the deeply blue state of New Jersey (Obama carried it 57%-42% in 2008 and the last time it went Republican in a Presidential election was 1988).

Governor Christie touts these accomplishments with great effectiveness by simply being honest with the people.  He explained the dire straits his state’s fiscal house was in and said in essence, we have to do something about this. 

Christie treats the American people like adults and doesn’t soft-pedal much of anything, which can be a political blessing and a curse; however, with the irresponsible turn our country’s governing has taken in recent years it is beginning to look more and more appealing.

Big donors and many prominent Republicans were basically on their hands and knees begging him to challenge Romney for the Republican nomination for President last fall and continued to into the winter.

But the time wasn’t right for Christie in 2012.  He certainly has some issues to deal with.  The largest one being his weight, Christie is obese and in the age of television and with our countries recently found greater emphasis on health, it’s unlikely we’ll ever have another William Howard Taft in office (you know, the guy who got stuck in the bathtub). He needs to shed some weight before he reaches the pinnacle of American politics.

And though it can often be one of his greatest assets, Christie has a penchant for being overly blunt.  Telling residents to “get the hell off the beach” last summer when severe weather was heading his state’s way isn’t exactly Presidential. 

He can also come off as a bit of a bully.  Firing back a little to hard and personally at protest tinged questions at his town halls.

And there’s the infamous moment on New Jersey public television when he got hot under the collar after a woman asked him why he doesn’t send his children to public schools.  An irritated Christie responded by telling the woman it’s none of her business where he sends his children to school.

Finally, a combination of the two big issues occurred earlier this summer when Christie fired back at a heckler on the Jersey shore, ice-cream cone in hand, by saying, “You’re a real big shot; you’re a real big shot shooting your mouth off.”

These troubles aside, if Christie strides to the podium later this month and tells his story in New Jersey in a compelling way, conservatives will be drooling the way liberals were in 2004 after their keynoter delivered his speech.  Democrats saw Obama as the future of their party, and they were right. 

With their party currently in disarray, Republicans can only hope the same happens with Christie after his address.  For a party that’s lacking leadership and compromise, it would be a wonderful thing if they embraced a leader who uses those two words to explain his very success.

Todd Akin represents an off the rails GOP

Perhaps the best illustration of the idiocy of current Missouri Republican Senate candidate and sitting Representative Todd Akin would be to list the multitude of prominent Republicans who have called for him to drop out of his race. Suffice it say Ann Coulter and Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown have finally found something to agree on this cycle.

Or maybe it would be to simply remind readers that Akin clearly was a worse listener in high school biology class than I was (which is pretty bad since by some miracle, I came away with a B-).

But all jokes aside (because this is no laughing matter), you have to be a complete know-nothing to actually say and mean that in cases of “legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try and shut that whole thing down.”

            Akin’s comments represent the perfect political storm.  Not only were they politically untenable, they also don’t pass the basic human decency test.

            Cue the outrage from both sides of the political spectrum. For once, they’re both right.

            As many have said, rape is rape, attempting to qualify the act’s legitimacy is demeaning to victims, and everyone’s intelligence.

            The loud response to Akin’s comments from party elders has been a positive sign for frustrated GOPers who view the Tea Party’s ascendency as negatively as Tea Partiers view Bush 41’s tax-raising budget deal in 1990.

            But don’t take heart too early, because a constitutional amendment banning abortions and not protecting the right in cases of rape and incest once again found it’s way onto the Republican convention platform Tuesday. 

And though most Republicans are generally pro-life (I am admittedly of this position), according to a recent Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation Poll, only twenty five percent say abortion should always be illegal—the position espoused Akin.

Mainstream conservatives no longer represent the heart of the Republican Party, and when people like Akin mouth off, it’s none more than a sad reminder of this fact.

All of this was somewhat avoidable, and it’s really due to the conservative movement’s inability to provide a coherent governing vision throughout the 2000s that we sit in this sad Tea Party infested space.

Instead of limited, efficient government, Americans have a conservative party that wants government in many of the wrong places and in none of the necessary ones.

Crass conservative political observers will be upset by the fact that all of the sudden abortion is at the center of the national conversation—a place Republicans interested in winning (myself included) do not want any social issue.

But maybe these conservatives should look inward and realize that it’s much easier to adopt reasonable positions, like being pro-life with exemptions for rape, incest, and the health of the mother, than to have to try and keep the fringe positions hidden in the attic while they yell and scream about the unemployment rate.

This is good short-term tactical politics, but its bad long-term political strategy.  Because at some point, an Akin comes out of the attic on accident, and independents (the people you need to actually win) who don’t want to pay high taxes, but aren’t for all that other stuff will see the party’s true colors and will not like what they see.

I’m not sitting here saying conservatives should become liberals and categorically support a woman’s right to get an abortion. I’m simply suggesting a softening of an unnecessarily hard line position.

Republicans need to be thinking of how to become more than the old rich white guy party. In a country that’s changing demographically, this is their number one problem, and the Akin’s of the world do nothing more than compound this great problem.

                                                           

So you want to meet Mitt Romney? Too bad.

The political class is waiting expectantly on Mitt Romney to reveal himself to the country in a way he has been unwilling to due thus far this campaign season in his convention speech.

Give us your vision for the future! They say. Rattle off your illustrious Olympic saving, consulting genius, dedicated to your church biography! They plead. Tell us something, anything about yourself, we’re begging you!

Well chances are, aside from some poll-tested snippets of the biography that he’s said a million times before, the American people will get none of that from Romney during convention week.

And though we deserve more, why should we expect it?

You see, what the chattering class is yet to accept, and the masses are about to understand about W. Mitt Romney is that he’s the most closed-off man ever to seek the Presidency.

A knock on President George H. W. Bush has always been that he was unwilling to discuss his heroism. He was modest to the end, even if it cost him a second term.

Mr. Romney is making a similar mistake with his lack of transparency.

We live in a world that values transparency above almost all else. And though you may not like President Obama’s policy prescriptions and what he’s done with his first term, at least he’s willing to reveal himself to us.

The man wrote a highly personal, moving memoir. It’s basically how he got famous. And though some details of this narrative are under attack, at least the President is willing to level with the American people—he’s a highly transparent public official.

I’m not a big Obama fan, but I can respect this characteristic. In fact, I’ve come to respect it more and more as Mr. Romney has been willing to reveal less and less.

Take the tax returns issue. Yes harping on tax returns is an attempt to distract the American people from Obama’s handling of the economy. But it is also important because it’s a transparency issue.

Mr. Romney probably won’t release any more of his tax returns, at least partially, because it reveals how much he gives to the Mormon Church. This is a private matter, I understand this, but when you’re running for President, especially in a world seeking hyper transparency, you give up the ability to make such an argument. Plus most people would probably find these donations admirable, even if they did go to a church most Americans don’t understand.

The American people deserve to know Mr. Romney—he’s asking to hold the most important position in the world. We deserve to at least know what kind of a guy he is.

Throughout the race, Mr. Romney has polled with higher negative than favorable personal ratings. This isn’t only because President Obama’s attacks have been working. It’s also because people don’t know him.

People rarely like the rich guy down the street who drives out in his Ferrari, plays tennis on his personal tennis court, and never speaks to the neighbors. This is in essence Mr. Romney.

He cannot win as this type of a figure, but take heart. The reintroduction can come at the convention. Most people were tuned out thus far anyway, so this is his chance, the big reveal.

But I see almost no way we’ll actually see real Romney, probably ever. If he couldn’t bring himself to tell us who he really is before, why would he now?

He thinks he’s given us enough already. He has the hubris to think that we’ll elect him just because he’s competent. Any observer of a 5^th grade student council election is aware of the fact that this is a fool’s errand.

We never elect the nerdy kid with good ideas. That kid works at a think tank, or as a highly successful management consultant, not as class President, and certainly later not as President of the United States.

Instead we select the leader who we admire, and will level with us.

And we might admire Mr. Romney, but we just don’t know him, and that’s the kiss of death in politics.

Nationals shouldn’t shut down Stephen Strasburg

Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg is 15 and 5 with a 2.85 ERA on the best team in baseball, but due to his history of injuries (most recently Tommy John surgery last year), the team plans to shut him down after he hits 180 innings.

Strasburg currently sits at 145.1 innings meaning he’ll likely be shut down sometime in mid-September and miss the playoffs.

You’d really expect experienced baseball hands like Nationals Manager Davey Johnson and General Manager Mike Rizzo would be smart enough to realize what a ridiculously stupid idea this is.

In sports and life, it’s always comfortable to plan out a path, and stick strictly to it, even when circumstances change. Consistency is often a virtue, but in this case it’s not. 

The Nationals could legitimately win the World Series this year. This is a fact. They’re having one of those special years in sports where everything just seems to fall into place. 

But Rizzo, Johnson, and the Nationals medical staff still plan to spurn this stroke of luck.  They want to preserve Strasburg for the future. And they likely think there will be plenty of World Series’ in their future with the young nucleus they’ve put together. 

You know, kind of like how the Dolphins figured they would be back to get the 49ers next time after they lost Super Bowl XIX with second year star quarterback Dan Marino in 1984. Marino played 15 more years. They never made it back.

But at least they went for it. They didn’t try to protect their young star from injury and give up their special season in the process.

With Strasburg wearing a sweatshirt and spitting sunflower seeds in the dugout, there’s pretty much no chance the Nationals win the World Series.

Memo to the Nationals, this is sports.  It’s unpredictable. People get hurt. Especially people like Strasburg who throw a baseball 99 miles per hour on a regular basis.

This decision is nothing more than hubris of the worst order, and also goes to the heart of a basic problem with baseball today.

Managers and management have decided the game can be chalked up to a bunch of formulas you plug into a computer in an attempt to take emotion out of the process. But baseball isn’t math. And ignoring the human component like the Nationals are doing right now is always foolish.

I’m not even completely crushing the Moneyball approach, I like that Billy Beane tried something new because he had no money. But human decisions can’t be based solely on statistics.

But there are no statistics backing the decision to shut down Strasburg, just a spineless brand of caution.

Baseball is a game of feel and instincts. It always has been, and always will be. And if Mike Rizzo and Davey Johnson used their baseball instincts here, something tells me they would go for it. There’s something special going on in Washington this summer and it’s foolish to act like you know it will ever be replicated again. 

Paul Ryan in Ohio

The sleepy town of Oxford, Ohio generally wakes back up in mid-August for the beginning of Miami University’s school year, but this summer, the city woke up a little early and is still abuzz with excitement over Mitt Romney’s choice of Representative Paul Ryan as his Vice Presidential candidate.

Though first-year move in day was still a day away, students, faculty, alumni, and residents of the surrounding areas turned out in droves for a rally to see their favorite son yesterday at 6 PM.  Ryan was accompanied by the highly popular US Senator Rob Portman and often embattled, but vivacious Ohio Governor John Kasich.  The three fired up the receptive crowd with their anti-Obama, pro growth messaging.

And while student perceptions of Ryan’s political views may be mixed; all of Oxford is excited about the notoriety the University is receiving in the wake of the selection.  Ryan is the first Miamian on the national ticket since Republican alumni Benjamin Harrison tabbed Whitelaw Reid his running mate for his failed reelection bid in 1893.

One student saw the pick as a rejection of the pragmatism this big moment in our countries history requires.

"Picking him said you're riding on the coattails of his budget plan and highly ideological approach.  I saw Romney as more of somebody who wanted to get things done, but not so much anymore after this decision.  It's almost like he just picked his younger brother or a younger version of himself," second-year student Jonathan Fox, a political science major, said.

Fox is a firm vote for Obama, but may have been persuaded to cross over had Romney picked another moderate Republican like the genteel Conservative, as dubbed by Politico's Jonathan Martin, Portman.

There's no doubt that the Ryan choice fundamentally shifted the conversation in the race.  For the first few months, voters were forced to endure an almost entirely negative Obama message from the Romney campaign, since polls indicate voters care about the economy more than any other issue, and also trust Romney's ability to guide the economy more than President Obama.

The Romney campaign, understanding they lacked the ability to run on their candidate's record as Massachusetts Governor, where his greatest legislative success was the passage of a health care reform bill including an individual mandate, speak about his Mormon faith, or discuss his highly successful career running Bain Capital after the Obama team successfully discredited his job creation record there.

These factors caused the campaign to play it safe and hammer away at the President's handling of the economy.  It was widely assumed that this strategy, cultivated by Romney's Chief Strategist Stuart Stevens, would continue all the way to November given the close nature of the race, and the VP pick would be a safe one that did not rock the boat; however as Dan Hirschhorn, a political reporter for The Daily, tweeted, "Source: Ryan pick 'means Romney's got control of his campaign-Stuart Stevens was fighting for Portman until the last dog died.'"

The counter narrative, driven by Team Obama all along has been that this election is a clear choice between two distinct visions for the future--the extreme right-wing one pushed mostly by the highly unpopular Republicans in Congress, and the balanced approach called for by many prominent Democrats, including the President.

The President wanted the race to be about no government vs. government playing an important role, and Romney wanted a referendum on Obama's handling of the economy.

By choosing the ideological leader of the Republican Party, Ryan, Romney has acquiesced to Obama's narrative.  Ryan admits as much in his standard stump speech where he says "this election is a clear choice."  Romney made the calculation that a referendum would not make him President, and made a risky possibly politically foolish move in the process.

Embracing Ryan means embracing his controversial budget and proposals to reform medicare, and despite the fact that there is currently a lot of talk about the American people embracing responsibility on our unsustainable entitlement spending, history shows us that hammering the other side on medicare cuts is a huge political winner (see 1996 and 2010 as great examples).

Of course this means it's likely that the Romney-Ryan ticket loses big--it's much easier to caricature the bold than to actually provide real solutions, which is what the political left will do on Medicare this fall.  It's also true that premium support and turning Medicare into a voucher system will probably not be popular with Americans in important swing states like Ohio (and Florida) with aging labor forces who rely on the program.

The reality is, Paul Ryan is an ideologue in a country that's young people are desperately desiring non-ideological pragmatic solutions, and while students at Miami University may be excited to see an alumni rise to a level of such prominence there is an understanding that far right and far left proposals are unlikely to get us out of our current mess.