The days of poll numbers with no votes officially end tomorrow night at 7 when Iowans head to their local high school and caucus for the candidates that have been groveling for their support for the past 6 months.
Even if the results tomorrow are inconclusive, they will most certainly begin the process of winnowing this rather weak field. Here's how I see things shaking out (the 3% I don't add is the Huntsman, Roemer conglomerate of people who haven't played in Iowa).
6. Michelle Bachmann: 6%
After the last debate a couple of weeks ago where she looked strong, it looked like Bachmann may have been in position to surge one more time. Unfortunately for her, it's clear that she didn't have the resources to compete. In fact, she just made her first ad buy in Iowa since August. With the important role the airwaves continue to play in politics, Bachmann's inability to utilize this medium to change the game was clearly a big part of her demise.
In addition to this, the Santorum surge has killed Bachmann, since they were playing for the same type of voters; losing out on the evangelicals was the last straw. I suppose Iowans felt she already had her chance in August, when they handed her a straw poll win that took her to the top of the polls. Realistically, she was probably finished once the inept Rick Perry took over that lead. Despite the fact that Bachmann claims she's headed to South Carolina after Iowa, it's bought to see a path forward for the Congresswoman if she gets embarrassed on caucus night.
My final Bachmann prediction: on Wednesday she'll announce she's heading back to her Congressional office for now to continue to work on substantive policy like the light bulb freedom bill. Subtext there, Bachmann never should have been taken seriously as a Presidential candidate.
5. Rick Perry: 10%
One word: Oops. After this embarrassing debate gaffe it became impossible for Perry to win, it's that simple. Even though he overhauled his campaign staff and has looked much better as of late, Perry's role as a serious candidate ended on the debate stage that night in Michigan. Though Perry does have substantial executive experience, a message built on legitimately bold policy proposals and his true Washington outsider status, and social conservative bona fides, his candidacy was mortally wounded long ago.
It's too bad really, had Perry started out with his current staff he would probably be the front-runner. He wouldn't have had to go quite as extreme as he has, and would just be able to talk all day about the 3 things I discussed above about him (bold policy, outsider, and social con).
Perry probably won't drop out even if he finishes embarrassingly low on Tuesday night because he has a lot of money, making it worth it for him to skip New Hampshire and go hard for three weeks in South Carolina to save his candidacy. But this is pretty much impossible, the chances of resuscitating the Perry campaign are about as good as resuscitating a man that died two months ago. "Oops.." famous last words.
4. Newt Gingrich: 13%
Newt rose to the top a little too early and negative ads have mortally wounded him in Iowa. This doesn't mean his candidacy is dead, just his Iowa prospects. Let's be clear about one thing here, there was nothing noble about Newt's lack of negative responses to the pro Romney Super PACs attack ads. He didn't respond because he didn't have the money to run effective ads back at Romney and fighting back too strongly on the stump could backfire, especially with Newt's bomb thrower rhetorical reputation. So Gingrich did what he felt he had to do.
And it looks like it may be working out. Someone was going to talk about Newt's many stupid mistakes in the past, so why not let it happen in Iowa? Even though it's first, Gingrich really actually plays well in the South, not the Midwest, so his mistakes came out big time in a state he doesn't play well in anyway and now the stories, when the campaign makes a southern turn (SC and Fla) at the end of the month, are not about Newt's misdeeds. Instead, all of that's aired out and I repeat, it was going to all come out at some point anyway.
Moving forward Newt could still beat Romney (probably not, but he could) and in an exchange with Chris Matthews yesterday on the trail he gave away his New Hampshire strategy. Since he probably won't win there, it's practically Romney's home state, he's going to do what he didn't do in Iowa and lambaste Romney for his liberal/moderate positions in the past, then run to the South where the primaries are in his neighboring states and he can win. Will it be enough? Who knows, but at least it looks like somebody plans to test Romney's record. However, there's no doubt that David Axelrod and Jim Messina are quite pleased with this development.
3. Ron Paul: 18%
Dr. Paul isn't a Republican; he's a Libertarian, that's why he won't win. I heard Chuck Todd say that Paul has the "highest basement and lowest ceiling" in the race, and I tend to agree with that. Paul's anti-war, anti-government faithful will come out in droves for him, but that's it.
Like it or not, the neo-con foreign policy is what's dominant in the Republican party today, and most at least ascribe to the "intervene when ours or our allies interests are at stake" foreign policy. Paul is an isolationist Libertarian. It's a sad commentary on the current party that libertarian economics are the dominant strain, but fortunately isolationist foreign policy hasn't caught on the same way. Paul will get his roughly 15% from his supporters, but no more.
Paul's path forward is continue to get roughly 15% all the way to the convention, and hopefully get to play a role in the writing of the party's platform (which sounds more powerful than it is) with the delegates he has.
2. Rick Santorum: 23%
It's actually pretty funny that a Catholic from Pennsylvania is the leader in the clubhouse to win the evangelical vote, but I guess that just illustrates the weakness of this field. I'm taking the Santorum surge seriously and expecting him to continue to take support from Bachmann and Perry (actual evangelicals) and even some from Republicans who were supporting Paul. His second place finish will be because the evangelical vote slightly coalesced around him. Not quite to the Huckabee level, but Santorum isn't a former pastor.
Santorum is lucky his surge happened when it did, because he has some moderate skeletons in his closet (endorsement of Arlen Specter over Pat Toomey in '04 for one) and an 18-point loss in his last election. He also endorsed Mitt Romney last time around, and no matter how late it was it's a good talking point for Mitt.
Moving forward Santorum claims he's going to New Hampshire where he'll try to use his momentum to have a respectable showing, but he's probably going to lose big there and get out after some low finishes in the south as well. Santorum is probably another Iowa one state wonder.
1. Mitt Romney: 28%
The only number that matters when it comes to Romney in Iowa is 48%. That's the percentage of voters who, according to the Des Moines Register poll, view Romney as the most electable in a general election. Republicans want to fire Obama, even if it means putting up Romney, who doesn't excite them, to do it.
Mitt won 25% of the vote four years ago, and he's not going to lose any of that support, but because of the excitement gap, he won't get much more than that. Many see a Romney win in Iowa as sealing the deal for him. I say not so fast, even though he is likely the nominee; a win in Iowa does not equal the nomination quite yet.
Here's why: Yes, probably gets a blowout in New Hampshire, but after that, there's the South where Gingrich plays. Sure he could get enough momentum out of two straight wins, but conservatives still aren't wild about Mitt and they'll continue to give the Gingrich a chance. He's tough and mean, and probably can't win, but can bloody Mitt a bit. That being said, Romney is very well organized and can take this race to the end. It might take a while, but Mitt Romney is still likely to be the Republican nominee.
Finals Thoughts
The Des Moines Register Poll also said that 41% of Iowans are still undecided, so all of this could be wrong. Literally every place prediction I made above could be wrong. This race has been fluid and will continue to be well past Iowa. Tuesday will certainly give us some interesting results to chew on and then we'll see what path forward the candidates choose.
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